Any prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon could breathe new life into Hezbollah, challenging the political momentum of Lebanon’s new president and prime minister.

As the end of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah approaches with neither side having fulfilled its obligations toward an enduring peace, many people in the Middle East wonder what will happen next.

Lebanon and Syria have a long history of fractured relations. Syrian troops occupied Lebanon between 1976 and 2005. Then, Lebanon became host to the highest number of Syrian refugees when Syria’s civil war began in 2011, stretching Lebanese resources and infrastructure to the breaking point.